Tracking retail fuel trends: August 2026

As August came to a close, we marked six months of the fuel supply crisis in the Middle East. The United States and Iran are still trading strikes; ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still severely limited; gas prices still sit above $4 per gallon. 

The crisis has drastically altered consumer spending and retail shopping behavior, and we took this opportunity to estimate its total impact. 

Read for a look at the month of August in the industry, as well as how the drastic reduction in fuel supply is affecting the U.S. economy. 

Last month’s data

Driving season ends strong in the forecourt but weak in the c-store

After retailers were squeezed hard in July, they saw a partial rebound in August.

Rack prices increased by roughly 7 cents per gallon nationally. This was driven in small part by rising oil prices, but in a larger part by reduced global refining capacity.

Retail prices, meanwhile, rose by 12 cents per gallon at the average U.S. gas station. All in all, the national per-gallon margin ticked up about 4 cents month-over-month, a small correction to the 14 cent-per-gallon decrease last month. 

August usually marks the end of the summer driving season's momentum — fuel demand tends to flatten or even dip slightly once peak vacation travel winds down. This year was different. While a few U.S. regions did see fewer visitors than they had in July, the national picture told a different story: traffic at the average American station rose 1% month-over-month, bucking the seasonal slowdown.

Why the uptick this time around? This increase in visits is likely due to more frequent trips from consumers amid higher gas prices, just like we saw back in the spring.

At that time, both the forecourt and the c-store saw increased visits. But that pattern didn’t hold in August: 

• The typical c-store saw a 1.6% decline in visits relative to July.
• Basket size also dipped, for a 2.7% average drop in daily c-store revenue.

Together, this indicates that the seasonal decline of inside sales has come early this year.

The cumulative impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis 

The end of August marked six months since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed for ship traffic. We’ve since seen a dramatic drop in oil exports from the Persian Gulf.

Here, we’re taking an opportunity to consider the cumulative impact to date on the fuel and convenience industries.

The onset of the crisis led to an immediate global oil supply shock, which rapidly reverberated from crude producers to refineries to stations. Between March and August 2026, the average price for regular gas jumped by 91 cents, a 29% lift.

We’ve previously covered what happens when prices go up like that — consumers visit the gas station more often, buying roughly the same amount of gas overall but fewer gallons per trip. You can see that’s what happened here; because of the high prices, consumers purchased slightly fewer gallons from March to August 2026 than they did in 2025. Total gallons purchased dipped a bit, but by far less than you might expect, given the price shock. 

And yet, drivers spent significantly more overall at stations. Since the end of February, consumers at the average gas station have spent 24% more each day on all grades of fuel. Again, that is despite the fact that they purchased 3.5% fewer gallons.

How about on the convenience side? Here, we note one big difference that doesn’t apply to fuel — prior to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, c-store activity was strongly up year-over-year. Customers were buying more in late 2025 and early 2026 than they had in the year prior. 

Overall, spending remains up year-over-year, even amid the supply crisis. But we see that this trend got weaker as time went on and gas prices remained high. Since the onset of the crisis, c-store consumers transacted 1.8% more often and spent 3.4% more compared to 2025. While consumers were buying more items prior to the supply crisis, that year-over-year figure flattened from March to August.

Considering these year-over-year changes, let’s add up the cumulative difference for gas stations. First, though, there are a few important clarifications we need to make.

You can see that, in 2026, spending is up at the pump and inside the store. To begin with, much of that increase is being driven by inflation. Additionally, spending is not the same thing as profit. In this case, increased revenue is not an automatic indicator of success for retailers, who themselves are dealing with rising operating costs.

Now, let’s look at the numbers.

Applying these per-retailer changes across the entire U.S. economy (150,000 gas stations and 151,975 convenience stores, per NACS), we can calculate the total year-over-year difference since the start of the crisis.

To be clear, the Strait of Hormuz crisis isn’t solely responsible for every shift in fuel and convenience spending this year. But at the scale of the American economy, even modest changes compound into billions of dollars of impact.

Predictions and considerations

Six months down, but how long to go?

Though the American government didn’t expect this conflict to be a lengthy one, there aren’t many signs to indicate this crisis is close to a conclusion. 

At time of publication, the United States and Iran have escalated strikes on key regional targets and on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. A second chokepoint is now in play as well.

The Bab el-Mandeb is a strait on the western side of the Arabian peninsula, opposite the Strait of Hormuz. As Saudi Arabia reroutes exports there to avoid the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Iran-backed Houthi rebels have begun targeting Saudi tankers along that route, too. 

If this supply crisis expands, prices will continue to increase.

Potential tailwinds:

1. We are halfway through hurricane season with no hurricane-grade storms. Experts predicted a slow season, and that’s panned out so far.

2. In September, most of the country switches over to lower-cost winter blend fuel. Furthermore, an EPA waiver permits more jurisdictions to switch over even sooner. This switchover to a cheaper fuel blend will help bring prices down at the pump.

Potential headwinds:

1. Summer driving season has ended, and we now begin a seasonal decline in travel. Fuel retailers can expect to see fewer drivers at the pump and fewer customers inside their stores, on average.

2. The war between Russia and Ukraine also drags on. Continuous attacks on Russian refineries have caused increased pressure on global refined product, especially diesel fuel.

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