On a recent episode of OPIS Talks, I joined Denton Cinquegrana and Brandon Gormley, both of OPIS, to explore how fuel retailers are navigating a shift from broad price competition to more precise, digitally driven engagement strategies. One data point from that conversation really stood out. 

Personalized promotions are 4.5 times more effective at changing customer behavior than lowering sign price.

That insight reflects how customers actually respond when presented with different ways to save. And it highlights a meaningful opportunity for operators navigating tighter consumer budgets and intensifying competition. 

Price still matters. But the more strategic question is which tools most effectively influence where customers choose to stop — and which protect margin along the way.

Why customers are cutting back and how to turn that into advantage

While macroeconomic indicators remain relatively stable, consumer sentiment tells a more cautious story. Upside’s recent Consumer Spend Report found that 75% of customers are either trying to cut back or maintain their existing spending levels. 

In a related analysis, offering customers a one-cent personalized promotion proved 4.5 times more effective at influencing behavior than lowering the sign price by one cent.

The psychology is straightforward: consumers perceive personalized promotions as earning a deal. Dynamic pricing, on the other hand, can create skepticism or perceptions of unfairness — even when the economic value is comparable. 

Even if the savings are similar, they can evoke a completely different emotional response.

The new math of fuel retail: healthy margins meet changing pressures

Despite fuel margins higher than most operators have seen in years, operators can’t get comfortable. Multiple forces are squeezing from different directions.

Data shows a 2% decrease in fuel volume sold per station over the past year. Meanwhile, daily price swings of 7 to 12 cents have become normal versus 2 to 3 cents twenty years ago, eating into a hefty part of overall margins. 

Add rising labor costs and convenience store turnover rates, and operators need every margin point just to cover fixed costs.

Foot traffic remains stable, but per-trip spending is decreasing when adjusted for inflation. And competition no longer stops at the stations down the street. 

As customers sign up for multiple loyalty programs and rely more heavily on digital platforms, each gas station’s competition exists in their customers’ pockets.

Why digital engagement is now part of competing for share

The industry structure itself is evolving. NACS data shows that the overall c-store count fell in 2025, yet the number of fuel-selling locations hit an eight-year high. That tension signals shifting competitive dynamics.

Different players are choosing different growth paths: some continue expanding through new builds in target markets, while others may find acquisition the more viable option — especially where new builds are restricted.

Precision over price wars

The shift from broad price competition to personalized engagement represents more than a tactical adjustment. It’s a fundamental reimagining of how fuel retailers create and capture value.

The most sophisticated operators are moving beyond traditional segmentation. They’re using analytics to understand individual customer behavior and tailor value propositions accordingly, because customers want to feel valued and understood, not just offered the lowest price. 

Crucially, this approach enables operators to influence incremental trips and share of wallet without sacrificing margin across their entire customer base. The operators who master this transition will be the ones turning economic uncertainty into a competitive edge.

Hear the full OPIS Talks conversation here.