As retailers know, the rise in uncommitted customers has made it harder to retain customers. And numerous strategies aimed at improving that retention — loyalty programming, social media, traditional marketing, and more — can make attribution tricky. So it’s hard to be sure what’s really working.

That’s why many retailers are turning to incrementality as a clearer measure of success. When retailers partner with Upside, they earn net-new visits and incremental profit — outcomes that can be clearly measured and tied back to the platform as a driver. But that clarity raises an important question: When does an Upside user stop being incremental, and become the retailer’s own?

The answer is a matter of habit formation. Each incremental visit increases the chance that a once-uncommitted shopper forms a habit around a particular store. A customer ceases to be uncommitted when that particular store becomes the default choice, and they no longer need an incentive to return.

Winning the next trip is the real goal

Given what we know about uncommitted customers — they spread their trips across competitors, and they are hard to retain — you can't just earn their business once and say you’ve won them. It’s entirely possible that uncommitted customers spend more with a single competitor than they do at your business.

So instead of focusing on the vague, big-picture goal of “winning uncommitted customers," we recommend focusing on constantly winning their next trip. The key to overcoming the retention hurdle is habit formation. And to form habits, retailers have to stay top of mind and constantly nudge them towards a desired action — visiting your business.

Each and every time you get a customer to transact with you, you’re improving the chances of them becoming “your” customer. Then, after a certain amount of time, it’s possible that customer might no longer need a nudge to choose your business. Until then, each visit is still incremental — and still up for grabs.

Repeat trips create habits over time

In grocery, our data shows that even just one more trip per month from uncommitted customers could lead to an 84% increase in overall revenue.

And if you can continue nudging your new customers until they become regular customers, the payoff is significant. In that same analysis, we observed that 71% of regular grocery shoppers will still be customers at a given retailer one year later. The retention figures for these regular customers are 46 percentage points better than the retention you see for new customers. 

Upside is helping retailers get there. The personalized promotions in our digital marketplace are precise, margin-bound, and non-cannibalistic. They help grocers build reps with these new, uncommitted customers at their businesses. And when that happens, the retailer overcomes that 46-point gap, turning lapsed customers into regulars.

The following chart shows that each time a new customer visits, they’re even more likely to keep coming back. And incentive programs like Upside help to boost retention past the rates of the general population.

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After three successive transactions, we see a nearly 20-point retention increase from Upside users. At six transactions, that retention increase jumps to 30 percentage points.

For uncommitted customers not using Upside or a loyalty program, retention is significantly lower. Without providing that nudge with an incentive, it’s way less likely an uncommitted customer will continue to visit. 

When a customer stops being incremental

There’s no single moment when an uncommitted customer suddenly becomes “yours.” Even customers who visit regularly may still be shopping with competitors. 

What is clear is the opposite: when a customer stops visiting entirely, you’ve lost the opportunity to earn their loyalty at all.

That’s where Upside plays its role. Your goal is to make a customer “yours.” Upside’s job is to help you win the moments that matter — the next trip, and the ones that follow.

When Upside succeeds in driving those incremental visits, it gives you the opportunity to build the relationships that eventually lead to loyalty.