At this year's Fast Casual Executive Summit in Austin, a panel discussion about restaurant competition revealed something more profound than shifting market dynamics. When three longtime executives unpacked the customer data, they weren't just describing restaurant challenges. They were documenting the death of customer commitment across every retail category.

Research presented at the summit showed that 71% of diners are "uncommitted," visiting less than once every two months. Furthermore, 64% of new customers don’t come back after their first month of visits. This uncommitted behavior appears everywhere, from grocery to fuel to retail. 

The uncomfortable truth? Customers aren't just deal-hunting, they're being strategic — but there are ways to win their loyalty.

Why uncommitted customers spread their trips around 

The panel's data painted a clear picture of consumer sentiments and priorities in action. More than half of restaurant customers reported getting meals from grocery stores in the past year. Another 29% bought meals from convenience stores. These are calculated decisions by consumers who've learned to extract value from every transaction. 

"For today's customers, Gen Z in particular, food is entertainment and part of their public personality that defines them," said Tim Hackbardt, the CEO of Hack Strategy Group.

"They have very little loyalty in their never-ending search for the next food experience, and they will chase that FOMO until their dying day."

Further complicating the race for customer loyalty is the fact that traditional swim lanes are blurring. Restaurants are no longer just competing against the spot down the street; grocery stores and even convenience stores now compete for the same limited set of meal occasions. Panelists discussed RaceTrac acquisition of Potbelly and QuikTrip's premium coffee offerings as proof.

"Talk about doing a great job at differentiation,” Hackbardt said about QuikTrip’s Nitro-infused coffee bar. “Cool experience, great variety, great price."

Circana data shared at the summit drove this home: fast-food breakfast traffic rose 1% in the last quarter, but it climbed 9% at food-forward convenience stores. Coffee programs like the one at QuikTrip have become legitimate alternatives that win on quality, price, and convenience simultaneously.

Loyalty programs are solving the wrong problem

During the panel, a fascinating disconnect emerged. Every business has a loyalty program, yet customer loyalty keeps declining.

"Mass discounting doesn't work anymore," said Carin Stutz, a longtime operator who’s now a member of the boards for Hawaiian Bros Island Grill and Kura Sushi.

"For a long time, you could throw a blanket discount and drive traffic. Today, guests see right through it."

Her observation captures why traditional retention strategies fail against uncommitted customers. Points programs assume customers want to accumulate toward future rewards. But uncommitted customers operate on different logic entirely. They want immediate value, contextual relevance, and zero friction. 

"When you start to see the signs of uncommitted behavior, the first move is to re-engage fast," Stutz emphasized. "That might be a targeted offer, a reminder of what makes our food unique, or simply a 'we miss you' message. The longer the lapse, the harder it is to win the guest back, so speed matters more than perfection."

This insight reveals the new retention reality restaurants must accept. You're competing for every single transaction as if it's the first one. The customer you served yesterday is making today's decision with fresh eyes, comparing you against every alternative in real-time. 

Get Upside's report on how to win uncommitted customers.

What can't be copied becomes a moat

Despite the grim statistics, the panel surfaced one competitive advantage that uncommitted customers can't optimize away: the irreplaceable elements of your restaurant.

Mike Dolinger, the VP of operations for California Tortilla, calls this distinction "the mechanic vs. the humanic."

By focusing on hospitality, service, engagement, and the overall experience, restaurants have the edge over gas stations or grocery stores.

Who’s excelling in this area right now? Hackbardt pointed to Culver's — the Midwestern favorite known for its ButterBurgers and fresh frozen custard. He praised the chain for maintaining a "customer-friendly and caring culture throughout all those different ownership groups," proving that even uncommitted customers respond to authentic connection.

"Restaurants win when they lean into what can't be copied: flavor profiles, brand culture, hospitality, and experience," Stutz concluded. "In a sea of sameness, your brand story is the difference between being a transaction and being a tradition."

Win moments to win customers

For businesses navigating this uncertain landscape, success requires tools that can motivate uncommitted customers to choose your restaurant over the competition. Upside helps businesses stay top-of-mind with new, infrequent, or lapsed customers so that they choose you when it’s time to get a meal. Our platform delivers personalized, profitable incentives that lead to long-term loyalty.

Ready to compete for uncommitted customers more effectively? Get in touch to see how real-time behavioral data can help you win the moments that matter.