Grocery retailers face a consistent challenge: attracting new customers is one thing, but getting them to return is another. That dynamic was the focus of a recent Progressive Grocer webinar I joined with Lynn Petrak and Allie Garcia. We talked about how grocery retailers can capture repeat business from the growing segment of uncommitted shoppers. The conversation built on insights from Winning the Uncommitted Customer, Upside’s latest research report, which expands on data from its 2024 Consumer Spend Report.

The rise of the uncommitted customer

Uncommitted shoppers now represent more than 90% of all grocery customers in the U.S. — a higher share than in any other sector studied. Today’s shoppers have more choice than ever, and small differences in price, convenience, or assortment can sway decisions from trip to trip.

Upside’s research highlights three defining traits of these shoppers:

• Value-seeking: Price matters, but so do quality and convenience.
  
  
• Digital-first: Many grocery decisions are made on mobile devices, often at the last minute.
  
  
• Opportunistic: Trips are shaped by lifestyle factors in the moment, not by long-term brand loyalty.
  
  

As Lynn pointed out during the webinar, many of us – including her – shop across multiple banners. It’s less about age or demographics and more about how today’s shoppers behave. 

The retention gap — and the revenue opportunity

While grocers are generally successful in driving initial visits, many first-time customers do not return after their first month. That retention gap represents a significant opportunity.

The data shows that if retailers can influence uncommitted customers to make just one additional trip per month, grocery revenue could increase by as much as 84%. The challenge lies in winning the next trip, consistently and repeatedly.

Habit formation is critical, and so is delivering a consistently positive in-store experience. Incentives like cash back or promotions may help secure a customer to try your store, but they cannot compensate for poor in-store experiences. Retailers must ensure that operational excellence and customer experience align with the promotional strategies they deploy.

Strategies for turning casual shoppers into loyalists

Three insights emerged from the discussion as key priorities for grocers:

1. Recognize the new reality: Cross-shopping is now the norm, and loyalty is far more fluid than in the past.
   
   
2. Act quickly: The first-to-second month after a customer’s initial visit is the highest-risk period for churn.
   
   
3. Pair loyalty with personalization: Personalized, margin-aware offers tied to actual shopper behavior can move customers from occasional to committed.
   
   

By leveraging transaction data to identify uncommitted shoppers and delivering personalized, high-value incentives, retailers can close the retention gap. These strategies not only increase frequency and spend but also help convert trial customers into long-term loyal ones.

The bottom line

The grocery industry is sitting on an overlooked opportunity: incremental trips from existing but uncommitted shoppers. As Lynn said in her closing remarks, “There’s a lot of business out there to be earned.” 

To hear the full discussion, watch the webinar here, or connect with Upside to see how we can help you turn uncommitted customers into loyal shoppers.