When May rolls around, both consumers and fuel retailers usually have something to be excited about. For drivers, sign prices usually peak for the year in April, so they’ll start to pay lower prices at the pump in the coming months. For retailers, Memorial Day Weekend brings the start of summer travel season — and the highest demand that stations will see all year long.

This May was a month that gave everyone something to celebrate — well, almost everyone. Read on for a recap of the month’s fuel trends, along with a closer look at diesel sales amid a “freight recession.”   

Last month’s data

Dips in margins offset by strong demand

In May, regular-grade rack prices remained relatively stable nationwide, falling by less than a cent on average. Increases in the Northeast and West were counteracted by comparable decreases in the Midwest and South. 

We’ve covered the reason for the West’s jump in rack prices in previous months, but it’s worth calling out again: In that region, gasoline supply is still tight from refinery outages.

 In terms of sign prices, it appears the spring increase we highlighted last month has tempered, with the average station selling a gallon of regular gas in May for 3.1 cents less than they did in April. This was expected, as sign prices usually peak for the year in April. (As of this month, 2025’s sign prices peaked on April 4.) The dips we saw in May were slightly greater in the Midwest and South, two regions with declining rack prices — but even the Northeast and West saw small declines in sign prices for regular gas.

So for drivers hitting the roads over Memorial Day Weekend — a record number, as predicted by AAA — the cost of gas was slightly lower month-over-month, and significantly lower year-over-year.

Each trend was a reprieve for those traveling, and it shows in the demand metrics. Upside data shows fuel transactions in May 2025 at an average station up 1.8% nationally from the previous month. Not only were there more drivers filling up in May, but there was more in-store traffic, as well. The average c-store saw a 3.5% month-over-month increase in transactions and a 4.7% increase in revenue. In other words, consumers were going inside more often and buying more inside with each trip.

This healthy start of the summer driving season is a good sign for c-store retailers that consumers are not sacrificing convenience staples.

Digging deeper into diesel

You might be hearing a lot about a “freight recession.” Over the past few years, the trucking industry has struggled with an oversupply of trucks amid low demand. Heading into 2025, there were reasons for optimism — many experts hoped that relative demand would continue rising and lead to a strong recovery for an industry that badly needed it. 

For a moment, that appeared to be true. The tariff announcements in February led American businesses to rush orders and increase inventories as a way to reduce the upcoming steep rise of import taxes. This boosted demand for trucking in February, with the American Trucking Associations reporting a 3% month-over-month rise in truck tonnage — signaling “recovery” for the industry.

Note that this “good news” wasn’t quite all it seemed to be. The demand increase wasn’t organic; businesses were simply pulling demand forward from future months in an effort to get ahead of expected tariffs. In subsequent months, the industry felt the impact of those actions as the tariffs went into effect and demand for trucking declined once more — hampering business investments and consumer spending.

But what does the Upside data show? Let’s dig into diesel demand to see whether we are seeing evidence of the so-called "freight recession” appear at the pump.

Looking across 22,000 fuel stations, we can see how the soft demand for trucking translates to fewer gallons of diesel sold at the pump. In May 2025, the average station sold 0.7% more gallons of diesel per day than one year ago, but 2.9% fewer gallons per day than two years ago.

At the same time, diesel prices have softened, but this apparently is not enough to encourage transportation services. In May 2025, the average station was selling diesel at $3.46 a gallon — 10.1% cheaper than in May 2024 and 11.7% cheaper than May 2023.

Amid persistent tariffs and continued policy uncertainty, it may be some time until demand for trucking picks back up. Diesel prices will likely continue to fall, but that will likely not make up for the lower overall demand for transportation services.

Predictions and considerations

Further falls in prices, but summer travel season is here

Looking ahead to June, we’re anticipating further decreases in both sign and rack prices. That’s due in part to the fact that OPEC+ will further increase oil production in June. Pleasant summer weather in much of the country will likely boost demand for June with continued seasonal month-over-month increases for both gallons and c-store items. 

But take those predictions with a grain of salt. If Americans weren’t already facing enough economic uncertainty, June is the official start of hurricane season — and inclement weather could create significant shifts in both the supply and demand of fuel.

Potential tailwinds:

1. OPEC+ production increases will lower rack prices, which in turn will drive sign prices down. Cheaper fuel boosts demand for that fuel.

2. Summer travel season is upon us, and more drivers will take to the roads in the coming months than at any other time of the year. 

Potential headwinds:

1. Hurricane season starts in June. If inclement weather were to strike, it could introduce further uncertainty in the relevant regions. 

2. Ongoing policy uncertainty will lead to lower economic growth as consumers and retailers conserve. 

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