April is the first full month of spring, and generally at this time of year, analysts predict an increase in sign prices as stations switch over to the more expensive summer blend of gasoline. 

We did see that occur this past month, but not to the degree that was expected. Some unanticipated changes in crude oil prices had downstream effects on rack prices and sign prices, though demand was generally still robust. 

Read on for a closer look at the past month in fuel.  

Last month’s data

Prices trend upward, but by less than expected

As expected, sign prices did increase for consumers in April. Nationally, the average price of regular fuel at a typical station went up more than 8 cents per gallon. The largest increase occurred in the West, which is still recovering from lower capacity due to a large refinery fire. The lowest increase was in the Northeast, at slightly under 3 cents per gallon.

There’s a caveat, though — the price increases we saw this April were smaller than we’d usually expect. (We’ll dig into this below.)

Rack prices, meanwhile, held relatively steady. Nationally, they only increased by about a cent per gallon. That meager increase, combined with a larger increase in sign prices, gave retailers a meaningful 6 cent-per-gallon boost to their profit margins.  

On the demand front, meanwhile, we experienced another month of solid increases in pump and c-store visits. Across the country, c-store transactions were up 3.3% month-over-month, and fuel transactions were up 4.6% since March. 

These kinds of increases are to be expected, as the warming weather leads to more Americans on the roads. That might explain why growth was softest in the South — the states in this region got warmer weather earlier in the year than other regions like the Midwest. 

What’s going on with crude prices?

Let’s get back into prices for a minute. The movement in pricing wasn’t what we generally expect for this time of year, primarily because of some unexpected changes related to crude oil.

In April, prices for West Texas Intermediate, a type of light, sweet crude oil that’s popular in the North American market, continued to decline. The average monthly price of a barrel was $63.54, almost $5 lower than the previous month — and its lowest price overall since April 2021. There are two main reasons that its prices are reaching recent lows — one related to demand, and one to supply. 

The demand effects are due to tariffs. As we mentioned in last month’s recap, the United States implemented tariffs on energy imports in March. Tariffs are taxes on imported goods; when they’re implemented, they make items more expensive for consumers, and as such, they have a cooling effect on the economy.

These particular tariffs were short-lived in the end, and they had a negligible impact on retail prices before they were repealed days later. As of today, there are no tariffs on qualifying Canadian energy imports.

Although there are no direct tariffs driving up the price of crude oil, the indirect impact of tariffs on the wider economy is spilling over into pump prices. 

With lingering policy uncertainty, businesses and consumers alike are trying to conserve resources until they can plan with more confidence. With spending suppressed, we’re seeing less economic growth — and with less growth, there is also less demand for oil. That decrease in demand brings down fuel prices.

On the other hand, the supply effects are production increases. OPEC+, a group of countries that coordinate their oil output in an effort to influence prices, announced in March that it would increase the supply of crude oil the following month by 138,000 barrels per day. Then in April, when analysts projected OPEC+ would make a similar-sized increase, the group surprised many by increasing supply by 411,000 barrels per day. Then, just a few days ago, OPEC+ announced it will increase production by that same amount in June. In all, the three months of production hikes combined to almost one million additional barrels per day. 

Together, we have increased supply with decreased demand, which results in a lower price for crude oil. Is that bad? Is that great? It depends on your perspective. 

Lower sign prices are certainly good news for consumers, who always welcome relief at the pump. However, slumping demand and the clouds on the economic horizon are cause for concern. For example, Morgan Stanley pointed out that a drop in oil prices this sudden has only occurred 24 times since 1988. About 92% of those instances were associated with a recession.

An earlier pricing peak in 2025

According to Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy, fuel sign prices peak each year around April 10, on average. Typically, sign price is highest in the springtime due to a combination of scheduled refinery maintenance, the switch over to summer blend fuel, and increasing demand due to warm-weather travel.

The lower price of crude oil has brought down rack prices which are now about 50 cents per gallon cheaper in April 2025 than they had been in the previous two years.

As a result, sign prices peaked a week earlier than average in 2025 — on April 4. And for the month as a whole, sign prices were much lower year-over-year. Relative to 2023 and 2024, consumers were paying more than 40 cents per gallon less in 2025.

Predictions and considerations

Sustained lower prices due to changes in crude market

We’re watching the trends in crude, where prices are falling. Barring a major geopolitical event, we don’t expect this trend is not likely to reverse anytime soon. For that reason, we are likely to see lower crude oil prices through at least the summer and possibly the rest of 2025. 

Potential tailwinds:

1. Memorial Day is coming up, which kicks off the summer travel season — the busiest time of the year for American fuel stations. Demand is expected to increase through the holiday and into the summer. 

2. Cheaper crude oil will lead to lower sign prices, providing an additional boost to demand.

Potential headwinds:

1. California was already facing production challenges due to a fire at the Martinez refinery in February; earlier this month, another fire occurred at the state’s Benicia refinery. Valero, which owns and operates the refinery, previously announced its intention to close the refinery by April 2026. 

2. OPEC+ is increasing its output, drastically increasing the available supply and reducing the price of crude oil. 

3. The ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs will lead to lower economic growth as consumers and retailers conserve. 

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