What we cover
Another month comes and goes without a full resolution to the ongoing war in the Middle East.
Although the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire early in the month of April, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, keeping the pressure on both stations and drivers.
Last month’s data
More substantial price jumps amid war in the Middle East
You might recall that in March, both sign and rack prices skyrocketed — each metric was up over 75 cents per gallon month-over-month. In April, they actually continued climbing.
Regular grade rack prices were up 41 cents per gallon nationally, compared to March. Across regions, this was rather consistent. That consistency tells us that the fundamental driver of those increases was global oil prices, not regional shifts in wholesale gasoline supply or demand.
In turn, sign prices increased by an equally dramatic amount. Nationally, sign prices ticked up by 43 cents per gallon, on average. Here, we see slightly greater discrepancies by region — the Northeast had the largest increase in sign prices at 50 cents per gallon, which was nearly 10 cents per gallon higher than the South and Midwest.
Rack prices were also highly volatile in April, which triggered various safeguards in our margin calculations. These safety measures allow for more accurate transaction-level accounting, but skew the aggregate results. For that reason, we are not reporting margin this month.
Demand appears to weather the storm — but what’s the full story?
With the weather getting warmer as we inch towards summer, it is common to see rising demand for both fuel and convenience store items. But the transaction increases this April are still noteworthy. You might expect to see consumers pulling back amid such high gas prices as a result of the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
Instead, the average American station saw a meaningful increase in fuel transactions (+3.7%), c-store transactions (+3.3%), and c-store revenue (+2.8%) compared to March.
In addition to month-over-month increases, visits are actually considerably up year-over-year, as well. From March 1st to May 1st, fuel transactions were higher in 2026 than they were in either of the two previous years. That might seem particularly surprising, because the average price for regular gas was almost a dollar higher in 2026 than in 2025.
Inside the convenience store, visits are also up considerably. Again, we expect c-store visits to increase seasonally, but this continues a two-year trend where inside transactions continue climbing year-over-year.
Just by looking at foot traffic, you may conclude that demand is up for fuel and convenience items in 2026. However, this is not true.
What’s hidden in these transaction counts is what’s actually purchased on each visit. This is where the data takes a turn.
Following the rise in fuel prices, consumers have not stopped coming to the gas station. They have, however, changed how much they buy during each visit. With high sign prices, drivers take trips more often but buy less fuel each time they visit. That higher frequency seems to be driving up foot traffic inside the store too, but as a consequence, consumers are choosing to buy fewer items there, as well.
The below chart shows what this actually looks like for stations. Compared to pre-war levels in February, consumers are buying about 9% fewer gallons per fill-up and 2% fewer c-store items per visit.
So what does this actually mean for stations? If transactions are up but volume is down, which one is having a greater impact on demand?
While we still see a month-over-month increase in demand both inside the store and outside at the pumps, comparisons to previous years reflect poorly on the current environment. Overall gallons sold in 2026 have fallen behind both 2024 and 2025.
Perhaps most concerning is that volume sales in 2026 are relatively steady since late March. Again, we’d expect that figure to rise based on seasonal impacts, but the flatlining has created a widening gap with 2024 and 2025 levels.
From this, we can infer consumers are beginning to shift their behavior. It’s not simply because gas prices are high, but rather because they remained high over a long period of time. At the time of this publication, data shows sign prices reaching $4.50 per gallon nationally, which makes this trend especially concerning for retailers.
Turning to the c-store, we see a slightly more optimistic outlook. Overall demand inside was higher in March 2026 than previous years, and April was roughly the same from 2025 to 2026.
This is good news that c-stores can continue bringing value to customers who are feeling the pressure of high gas prices. But it also is a warning for the industry that when it comes to convenience demand in 2026 — flat may be the new growth.
With more trips but demand lagging behind previous years, retailers are being strained in two ways.
First, on-site workers are serving more customers amid higher foot traffic, which could potentially even raise labor costs for retailers.
Second, retailers are also paying more for card processing fees. Those swipe fees are based on both variable and fixed costs per transaction, both of which are currently going up. More frequent trips can drive up fixed costs, and the higher dollar amounts per transaction due to inflation drive up variable costs.
Together, these two factors add increased pressure on retailers, whose costs are increasing without any alleviation from higher demand.
Predictions and considerations
Still waiting on a resolution with the Strait
Stop us if you’ve heard this one before — we’re closely watching events surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. It has been nearly 10 weeks with the Strait effectively blocked, and this remains the single biggest factor determining how the month of May will play out.
There are some other factors, which we’re listing here below, but the potential impact of each one of them pales in comparison.
Potential (other) tailwinds:
1. Memorial Day Weekend is the biggest travel holiday of the year. We’ll see more seasonal increases in demand this month.
2. The transition to summer-blend fuel has been completed across the country. This means that rack prices will no longer increase due to the switchover (though, of course, they may increase for other reasons).
3. The United Arab Emirates exited OPEC effective at the beginning of May. The nation disputed the organization’s output caps; leaving the group means the UAE is no longer subject to OPEC quotas and can produce more oil. This could potentially lower global oil prices over the medium term — but not so suddenly to bring prices down in this crisis.
Potential (other) headwinds:
1. High fuel prices have been a tremendous burden on consumers, especially those with lower annual household incomes. We recently published a report on the “income divide” and its impact in fuel, c-store, and other categories.
2. Nations including the United States are tapping into their oil and gas inventories to help cover the supply shortfall created by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. We’re now seeing global inventories are declining — and if they run out, policymakers will lose a critical option for lessening the impact of the ongoing crisis.
Want a closer look at the data?
Our team is closely following the war in Iran and its impact on global oil markets. For regular updates and video explainers, visit our Strait of Hormuz Impact Hub.
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